What If the Future of Tech Depends on One Geopolitical Flashpoint?
Lessons from World on the Brink on global fragility and mankind's strategic dependence on Taiwan
This Week’s Spark
In December 2021, I was pacing the balcony of a luxury resort in Montego Bay, Jamaica, practically shouting into my phone: “Dad, you don’t understand, the big war is imminent. I’ve been reading a lot of research - Russia will launch a full-scale attack on Ukraine. It’s only a matter of when.”
One of the experts I was citing was Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder of CrowdStrike, and one of the few who called it right, early. His clear-eyed, unsentimental take on geopolitics cut through the noise. I’ve followed his work closely ever since.
So when I heard Dmitri was publishing his first book, World on the Brink, I pre-ordered it immediately. And it delivers.
This book isn’t just a geopolitical briefing - it’s a strategic warning. At its core is one explosive idea: the future of global technological progress, from semiconductors to AI, may hinge on the geopolitical fate of a single island only slightly larger than Belgium - Taiwan.
The US and China, Alperovitch argues, are already locked in a Cold War II. Ukraine and Iran/Israel are dominating the headlines today, but the next centre of gravity for global stability is 80 miles off the coast of China.
If you want to understand:
Why does Taiwan matter more than oil, rare earths, or shipping lanes in the 21st century?
Why is war over Taiwan more probable than possible, and why is delaying it the West’s best strategic play for now?
How must US and Western policymakers, along with global business leaders, think in terms of multi-decade containment, and not quick wins?
Then World on the Brink is essential reading. It’s the kind of book that should sit on the desks of both generals and CEOs.
TLDR - What’s this book about?
World on the Brink argues that the most important strategic rivalry of our time, between the US and China, is already well underway. Taiwan, once a Chinese backwater and the place of exile for the non-communist Chinese government in 1949, has become a geopolitical linchpin. Today, it holds a 60% global market share in semiconductors, and over 90% in advanced chips.
The technological progress of the entire world depends on Taiwan. Alperovitch explains how this dependence, combined with military posturing and persistent strategic misreads, could push both powers toward a catastrophic conflict, one with global repercussions.
But the book is also unusually practical. It’s not alarmist - it’s strategic. The core message: war over Taiwan is not inevitable. But avoiding it will require the West to act with urgency, discipline, and long-range thinking it hasn’t consistently shown in decades.
For transformation leaders, this book isn't just foreign policy - it’s a case study in fragility, resilience, and how much global systems depend on invisible assumptions. Like uninterrupted supply chains. Or peace in the Taiwan Strait.
Sharp Takeaways – Questions Every Leader Should Ask
Is your strategic planning built on outdated geopolitical assumptions?
Many business strategies rely on global supply chains and stable trade routes. But World on the Brink makes clear that a conflict over Taiwan could upend everything from semiconductors to shipping. Are you stress-testing your value chain for real-world shocks, or just hoping someone else “above your pay grade” will sort it out?
Do your digital and AI ambitions depend on one point of failure?
If Taiwan’s advanced chip manufacturing goes offline, innovation pipelines everywhere freeze. Do you know where your organisation, or your industry, is exposed? And what can you do to prepare?
Are you prepared for the cost of fragility?
Optimising for efficiency is straightforward. But as Alperovitch shows, fragility hides in plain sight. Are your operations, procurement, and product roadmaps resilient to systemic disruption - or just “too lean” to absorb potential shocks?
How resilient is your organisation to strategic uncertainty?
In a Cold War context, significant delays, trade freezes, and regional instability aren’t black swan events - they’re baseline conditions. Can your business operate in a world where supply chains are politicised and data flows restricted?
Are you thinking in quarters or decades?
One of the most valuable messages in this book is the importance of a long-term containment strategy and long-term planning. Are you training your leadership teams to think on a 10-year horizon - or are you optimising for short-term certainty, that doesn’t even exist anymore?
Shelf to Boardroom – How I’d Use This Book
In risk and scenario planning:
Use The World on the Brink to sharpen your executive team’s awareness of second- and third-order geopolitical risks. Treat Taiwan not as a news story, but as a strategic stress test. Could your operations withstand disruption to Asia-Pacific trade or semiconductors?
In technology and AI roadmaps:
Build redundancy around chip supply, R&D partnerships, and data infrastructure. Alperovitch’s framing makes the case that technological sovereignty is no longer a government-only concern - it’s a C-suite issue. Total self-sufficiency may be a fantasy, but reducing critical dependencies is not.
In supply chain strategy:
Move the discussion beyond cost or ESG. World on the Brink underlines the fragility of "just-in-time" models. Building buffer capacity may hurt short-term margins, but it could prevent a long-term catastrophe.
In Board-level education:
Use select chapters to broaden geopolitical literacy. Too many transformation conversations stay locked at the industry or enterprise level. This book shows how to connect business continuity with global strategic reality.
Quote of the Week
📍Where I’m Reading This
Still at the Caffè Nero in Gdańsk. It’s becoming my unofficial work/read HQ. Something is chilling about reading World on the Brink just a few kilometres from where World War II began in 1939.
Up Next on the Shelf
Next week: The Great Mental Models by Shane Parrish
Shane is the mind behind the Farnam Street blog, which I’ve followed for nearly a decade. Think of The Great Mental Models as the ultimate executive coffee table book. Ditch those oversized art and travel tomes you’re only using for decor, and keep this one within arm’s reach. You’ll want to reach for it from time to time.
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